As John Thune and John Cornyn attempt to ram Donald Trump’s ugly vulture budget through the United States Senate, new polling commissioned by the Northwest Progressive Institute finds that voters in heavily Republican Eastern and Central Washington are staunchly opposed to the legislation, with a majority strongly opposed.
A total of 58% of the voters from Eastern and Central Washington interviewed by Civiqs for the Northwest Progressive Institute this week said they opposed H.R. 1, the centerpiece of Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, which Trump has previously demanded that Congress pass by July 4th. 54% said they were strongly opposed, 4% said they were somewhat opposed, 15% said they were somewhat supportive, and 24% said they were strongly supportive. A mere 3% said they were not sure.
Those percentages are not all that different from the state as a whole.
We found a total of 63% of likely 2025 voters opposed to the bill and 33% supportive — a thirty-point gap. 59% were strongly opposed, 4% somewhat opposed, 10% somewhat supportive, and 23% strongly supportive. 3% were not sure.
There is majority opposition to H.R. 1 in every single region within our sample of 737 Washingtonians, and 51% of rural voters across the state say they are opposed along with 83% of urban voters and 63% of suburban voters.
The 63% of suburban voters who are opposed mirrors the 63% overall who are opposed to the bill, which is the exact same percentage that disapproves of Donald Trump’s job performance — a finding we published yesterday.
Taken together, these results demonstrate that Donald Trump and his policies are about equally unpopular overall. Within the state’s rural communities, however, H.R. 1 is slightly less popular than Trump is. That could be because some rural voters are finding it hard to let go of Trump, whereas they have less attachment to the tax cuts for the rich and Medicaid cuts that Trump’s enablers in Congress are trying to push through.
NPI has been surveying Washington State for over a decade. We haven’t previously seen opposition of this magnitude to a signature piece of legislation proposed by Republicans from areas that elect Republicans to Congress. What this research suggests is that voters are not going to be won over with hype about tax cuts or funding to conduct mass deportations. Nothing Republicans can say about H.R. 1 is going to make this ugly vulture budget palatable to voters. It stinks to high heaven and Washingtonians know it. It absolutely reeks of greed, corruption, and cruelty.
Republican Congressmen Michael Baumgartner and Dan Newhouse provided two of the votes needed to pass H.R. 1 before it left the House of Representatives. Had they voted no, the bill would have failed. The two of them could have put a stop to this abomination all by themselves. Instead, they betrayed their constituents and voted to pass the legislation, then bragged about having voted yea.
If you haven’t been following the sausage-making machinations in Congress related to H.R. 1, here’s a summary of the harm that it does (Senate version):
- Gives the wealthy another huge tax cut
- Increases the federal debt by trillions of dollars
- Raises the debt limit
- Slashes Medicaid
- Guts nutrition assistance
- Authorizes a sell-off of millions of acres of public lands
- Dumps more money into the bloated defense budget for shipbuilding, munitions
- Allocates billions of dollars for a useless border wall
- Funds crackdowns on immigrants, including planned mass deportations
- Repeals incentives for solar and wind energy construction
- Bars Planned Parenthood from receiving public funds
- Removes a tax on gun silencers and short-barreled rifles and shotguns
- Funds various pet projects named after Trump
“If enacted it will stand alone in history — a reconciliation bill that drives up poverty and the number of people uninsured, while increasing deficits and debt,” the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ President Sharon Parrott said today.
“And, given that they are still writing the bill, Senate Republicans don’t even know what it costs, though its price tag is surely trillions of dollars, as Congressional Budget Office estimates of earlier drafts made clear.”
“Still, the President and Senate Republican leaders are pressing toward an immediate vote on the bill even as poll after poll shows a clear majority of people across the U.S. oppose it.”
“Proponents of this destructive agenda have tried every trick in the book to claim falsely that the deep and harmful cuts to food assistance and health coverage would somehow not hurt people. They’ve done all they can to portray the people it would hurt as anything but who they are — people in communities throughout the country who need help to afford the basics, most of whom work or are children, seniors, or people with disabilities,” Parrott added.
Here’s the question we asked and the answers we received:
QUESTION: In May, congressional Republicans passed budget reconciliation legislation which they call the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” and which Democrats have denounced as a scam and a giveaway to billionaires. Republicans say the legislation would deliver the largest tax cut in history, putting an extra $5,000 in Americans’ pockets, eliminate taxes and tips and overtime, and fund at least one million annual removals of illegal immigrants. Democrats say the legislation would strip healthcare from fourteen million people by cutting Medicaid (known as Apple Health in Washington State), slash food assistance for the hungry, and raise monthly student loan payments on working people, all to give huge tax cuts to the already wealthy, who don’t need them. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the tax provisions of the bill will increase the federal deficit by $3.8 trillion. Do you support or oppose this legislation?
ANSWERS FROM THE WHOLE SAMPLE:
- Support: 33%
- Strongly support: 23%
- Somewhat support: 10%
- Oppose: 63%
- Somewhat oppose: 4%
- Strongly oppose: 59%
- Not sure: 3%
ANSWERS BY REGION:
- King County
- Support: 14%
- Strongly support: 11%
- Somewhat support: 3%
- Oppose:
- Somewhat oppose: 6%
- Strongly oppose: 78%
- Not sure: 2%
- South Sound
- Support: 37%
- Strongly support: 31%
- Somewhat support: 6%
- Oppose: 61%
- Somewhat oppose: 11%
- Strongly oppose: 50%
- Not sure: 2%
- North Sound
- Support: 26%
- Strongly support: 15%
- Somewhat support: 11%
- Oppose: 70%
- Somewhat oppose: 2%
- Strongly oppose: 68%
- Not sure: 3%
- Olympic Peninsula and Southwest Washington
- Support: 44%
- Strongly support: 30%
- Somewhat support: 14%
- Oppose: 50%
- Somewhat oppose: 1%
- Strongly oppose: 49%
- Not sure: 6%
- Eastern and Central Washington
- Support: 39%
- Strongly support: 24%
- Somewhat support: 15%
- Oppose: 58%
- Somewhat oppose: 4%
- Strongly oppose: 54%
- Not sure: 3%
Our survey of 737 likely 2025 Washington State voters was in the field from Tuesday, June 24th, 2025, until yesterday, Friday, June 27th, 2025.
The poll was conducted for NPI by Civiqs, among selected members of the firm’s research panel. All sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey has a margin of error of ± 4.8% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.
Civiqs is one of three trusted pollsters that NPI regularly works with on public opinion research, and has a track record for accuracy and excellence.
As of press time, Senate Republicans did not have the votes locked down to get H.R. 1 in its current form through the chamber. However, that could change.
Thom Thillis of North Carolina, who faces reelection next year, is a “no” right now.
Pushover Susan Collins of Maine, who often professes to be concerned, “said she would vote to proceed, but that doesn’t mean she will vote yes on final passage,” Punchbowl News reported, adding: “Collins said she will be filing a number of amendments on the package and wants to see the bill “substantially changed.’ ”
Josh Hawley of Missouri, who previously called on Republicans not to cut Medicaid, has announced he’ll vote for the bill even though it does just that.
“Hawley, whose intentions had been unclear, said he was satisfied by a change that would delay implementing changes to the provider tax language, which most states use to help cover Medicaid costs,” Politico’s Jordain Carney reported.
“He was also encouraged by an increase in the rural hospital fund, which means that his state will get more Medicaid funding for the next four years.”
“Incensed” hospital leaders say those provisions won’t avert catastrophe.
“By making severe limitations to provider taxes and state directed payments, two lifelines for hospitals, the bill will result in the curtailing of essential services and the closure of hospitals, particularly in rural areas,” American Hospital Association CEO Rick Pollack said. The Senate’s language is “substantially worse than its House counterpart.”
“The impact of provisions in the United States Senate’s version of [H.R. 1] reflects an estimated annual loss of more than $4 billion in total Medicaid funding for Louisiana healthcare providers. This will negatively impact our ability to deliver care and have devastating consequences for our state budget. The American Hospital Association estimates an annual job loss of 16,767 and a 10-year loss of tax revenue at $50.7 million for every $1 billion reduction in Medicaid spending,” the letter stated.
“These economic consequences pale in comparison to the harm that will be caused to residents across the state, regardless of insurance status, who will no longer be able to get the care that they need. The House version, while it presented challenges, is a more workable solution which would help to avoid many of these effects,” it added.
A coalition of faith leaders that includes many well known clergy from the Seattle area released its own letter slamming the legislation and calling for its rejection.
“From our various faith perspectives, the moral test of a nation is how it treats those most in need of support. In our view, this legislation will harm the poor and vulnerable in our nation, to the detriment of the common good. Its passage would be a moral failure for American society as a whole,” the religious leaders said.
The letter was signed by the following PNW religious leaders:
- Rabbi Daniel Weiner, Temple De Hirsch Sinai
- Imam Jamal Rahman, Interfaith Community Sanctuary
- Douglas Avilesbernal, Evergreen Association of American Baptist Churches
- The Right Reverend Philip N. LaBelle Bishop
- Spencer Barrett, Presiding Elder, African Methodist Episcopal Church
- Most Reverend Paul Etienne, Catholic Archbishop of Seattle
- Most Reverend Eusebio L. Elizondo, Auxiliary Catholic Bishop of Seattle
- Most Reverend Frank Shuster, Auxiliary Catholic Bishop of Seattle
- Most Reverend Joseph Tyson, Catholic Bishop of Yakima
- Bishop Shelley Bryan Wee, Northwest Washington Synod, ELCA
Meanwhile, Republican billionaire Elon Musk offered his own fresh criticism of H.R. 1, tweeting: “The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country! Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.”
Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer has wisely decided to force the bill to be read in its entirety to slow Thune and Cornyn’s machinations. “The maneuver, which was described by a person granted anonymity to describe private plans, is meant to slow down Senate passage of the megabill and give Democrats more time to raise awareness of provisions inside of it,” Politico reported. “The reading of the bill by clerks is provided for under Senate rules but is almost always waived by unanimous consent.”
The current incarnation of H.R. 1 is 940 pages, and reading each word of the monstrosity is expected to take fifteen hours or more.
Given how unpopular H.R. 1 is — national polling has repeatedly found that the legislation is extremely unpopular — the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) could be right about its passage setting Mike Johnson and the Republican Party on course for the loss of their House majority next year.
58% of voters in Eastern and Central Washington oppose Trump’s ugly vulture budget, along with 63% of voters statewide is a post from NPI's Cascadia Advocate, the journal of the Northwest Progressive Institute. Published continuously since March of 2004, NPI's Cascadia Advocate provides thoughtful commentary and analysis on regional, national, and world politics. Keep The Cascadia Advocate going by making a contribution to sustain NPI's research and advocacy here.